Author: Kai Donesa

Egypt Inflation

Egypt’s Surging Inflation: What is Happening and How Employers Can Prepare

Written by Kai Donesa on . Posted in Uncategorized.

Birches Group reports on the current state of labor markets that are making headlines around the world, bringing you up to date on the news.

Egypt, Africa’s third-largest economy, has been battling inflation for almost a year. Supply chain issues and tight financial conditions have also made Egypt vulnerable to external shocks.

Egypt’s inflation rose to 26.5% in January 2023, up from 21.9% in the previous month and 8% in January 2022. Steve Hanke, an economist at Johns Hopkins University, estimates the actual inflation rate to be 101%.

A currency crunch

The crisis began in February 2022 with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The conflict has severely affected Egypt’s economy. The country saw food and energy prices soar. Its tourism industry, which relies on Russian and Ukrainian visitors, further declined. Foreign investors also pulled out over US$20 billion in investments. The Egyptian government responded to the flight of capital by restricting imports. Inflation, which was at 8% the month before, entered the double digits zone at 10%.

With dwindling foreign currency reserves and teetering on the brink of an economic collapse, Egyptian authorities turned to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for aid in March 2022.

A new IMF loan

After several months of meetings and negotiations, Egypt and the IMF reached a staff-level agreement in October 2022. (The loan agreement was approved by the IMF’s Executive Board in December 2022 but only publicly published in January 2023.) The IMF would provide a support package totaling US$ 3 billion in exchange for implementing several economic reforms, including:

  • Liberalizing the exchange rate,
  • Raising interest rates by 2%, and
  • Scaling back the economic role of the state and military.

The support package would be gradually given to Egypt within four years, subject to periodic reviews. The IMF loan is also expected to catalyze another $14 billion in funding from international and regional partners.

The shift to a flexible exchange rate

One of the IMF’s conditions for its latest loan was to liberalize the exchange rate. With a permanent shift to a flexible exchange rate, the Egyptian pound’s value would be determined by forces of supply and demand rather than set by the central bank.

To comply with the IMF’s terms, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) announced in October 2022 the shift to a flexible exchange rate. The CBE has since been devaluing the Egyptian pound in phases. Since the end of January 2023, it has been trading at above EGP 30. The Egyptian pound lost over half of its value in less than a year.

As a result, the depreciating pound has been fueling inflation and adding to the woes of Egypt’s 106-million population.

An economic crisis

Egypt’s fiscal measures have strained its citizens, especially the poor and middle class.

Egyptians are feeling the pinch. Many imported products are unavailable, and food staples have doubled in price. Tens of millions of people cannot afford basic staples, limiting their spending. Families have been cutting back on meat, medicine, and clothing.

Citizens are complaining about their income shrinking. More middle-class Egyptians have turned to charities for support.

In an opinion piece for Middle East Eye, former investment minister Yehia Hamed cites that nearly 70% of Egyptians believe the government is “doing too little to meet people’s need for an acceptable standard of living.”

How is the government responding

According to the World Bank, the government announced various measures to help alleviate the impact of higher prices on the vulnerable. These measures include revising the minimum wage, delaying adjustments to electricity prices, and extending existing food subsidies and cash transfers. The government has also opened outlets where food is sold at lower prices.

But conditions are still problematic. Poverty is elevated in Egypt: roughly 1 in 3 Egyptians live below the poverty line, according to official figures as of 2020.

What analysts say

The immediate outlook for the Egyptian pound is more challenging, says S&P Global. Experts predict that, over the next 3 to 12 months, the Egyptian pound will trade at 32 to 35 pounds against the dollar.

Analysts also predict that inflation will continue to rise in the short term. The World Bank (WB) forecasts Egypt’s inflation to remain double-digit until the fiscal year ends in June 2023. WB also notes that economic activity and real incomes are expected to be adversely impacted.

What our Market Monitor indicates

Egypt has been on our Market Monitor report since its first publication in mid-June 2022. From mid-July to September, the North African country was at Level Two for two months. Level Two reflects dynamic market conditions where there has been a movement of over 20% in the exchange rate in the past year.

In October, Egypt was dropped from our list of volatile labor markets as the movement in the local exchange rate fell below 10%. Nonetheless, we continued to examine the Egyptian Pound’s exchange rate movement against the US Dollar. Egypt reentered the list in November and remained at Level Two until early January 2023.

In mid-January 2023, Egypt’s level of volatility jumped from Level Two to Level Four. As of the time of writing, Egypt’s exchange rate movement for the past six months is 59.2%, showing sudden and rapidly evolving conditions.

How Birches Group can help

Employers in Egypt should keep a close eye on the local situation, as rapid economic events can drastically impact business continuity.

As inflation rises, organizations must respond proactively to the emerging crisis. In the 15 February edition of our Market Monitor report, we highlight Egypt as a case study of what organizations can do in a turbulent market. Join our mailing list today to learn about our recommendations for special measures in Egypt and other volatile labor markets.

References:

Crisis in Syria

A Closer Look at the Economic Crisis in Syria

Written by Kai Donesa on . Posted in Uncategorized.

Birches Group monitors labor markets that are making headlines worldwide and wants to share news and updates on the conditions in these markets.

Now approaching its 12th year, the conflict in Syria is one of the most complex geopolitical and humanitarian emergencies of our time. The International Crisis Group describes the situation as a “constellation of overlapping crises” with years of ongoing hostility.

What began as part of the Arab Spring uprisings has developed into an unending civil war involving world powers. Today, the Syrian Arab Republic faces massive economic hardships and limited political progress. 15.3 million Syrians—almost 70% of the population—need humanitarian aid, says the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA).

A matter of strength and survival

Over a decade of conflict has had disastrous effects on the local economy. 90% of Syrians live below the poverty line, and unemployment among the youth has reached 60%, the UN Development Programme reports.

The socioeconomic impact of the conflict in Syria is growing and ever-deepening. Conditions are deteriorating, and life is more challenging than ever. Syrians are dealing with a multitude of shocks, especially the following:

The Syrian pound depreciates. The Syrian pound’s unprecedented weakness is one of many indicators of a worsening economy. The Syrian pound has lost almost 75% of its value against the United States (US) dollar throughout 2022. The Central Bank reduced the official exchange rate for the second time in four months from 3,015 to 4,522 Syrian pounds for one US dollar. The rate in the parallel market, which is used for most local economic activity, is much higher at around 6,500 Syrian pounds.

Basic commodity prices skyrocket. The depreciation of the Syrian pound has led to rampant inflation, eroding real wages. According to Euro-Med Monitor, necessities are unaffordable, with prices increasing eightfold in the past two years. The Syrian regime has also led an austerity campaign, pulling subsidies for essential goods and services. And yet the income of most families has not increased.

A fuel and electricity crisis hits Syria. A longstanding agreement with Iran has faltered as shipments have stalled. The Wall Street Journal reports that Iran has restricted its monthly oil supply to Syria due to price increases and high demand in winter. This recent development has crippling effects. Since December, a severe fuel crisis has affected almost every sector in Syria. Three-quarters of Syrian households have less than eight hours of electricity every day. The power outages have driven many to rely on candles to light their homes. People burn shoes, clothes, trash, tires, and even pistachio shells for heat. The government has cut its work week to four days to save on energy costs, and working overtime has been banned.

Syria’s economy may have hit its lowest point since the start of the civil war in March 2011. Associated Press reports that, since wages don’t come close to meeting the cost of living, most Syrians live on remittances, multiple jobs, and humanitarian aid. The Center for Disaster Philanthropy also notes that the situation has forced people into survival strategies, such as eating less and selling fuel aid to buy food.

Without a political solution to the conflict, the economic crisis in Syria is expected to continue, and analysts expect hyperinflation to begin this 2023. The situation is still bleak as the country goes deeper into the crisis.

What our Market Monitor shows

Since we first published the Market Monitor report in mid-June 2022, Syria has been on Level One in the first five months of our monitoring. Level One reflects standard market conditions, with a 0 to 20% movement in the local exchange rate over the past 12 months.

But in our November and December 2022 reports, Syria was excluded from our list of volatile markets. During this time, the movement in the local exchange rate fell below 10%. By early January 2023, the exchange rate had not significantly moved in the last two months.

Syria reentered our list at Level Four in our latest (mid-January 2023) report. This abrupt level increase shows a sudden and unexpected socioeconomic event and a local currency devaluation of 50% or more in the past six months.

How Birches Group can help

Policies and procedures for keeping pay programs functioning in markets like Syria are critical. Develop a Special Measures Policy with triggers and immediate responses for supporting staff. Also, decide how your organization plans to carry out its next steps. Employees need to know they can rely on their employer to help them during times of crisis.

Birches Group can help your organization design responses to recent developments in Syria. We are experts in developing Special Measures Policies for organizations across sectors, including nonprofits and leading multinational companies. Get in touch with our consultants today to learn how we can create a Special Measures Policy for you.

References:

Performance Rating

WHY A FIVE-POINT PERFMORMANCE RATING SYSTEM MAY BE DETRIMENTAL TO PEOPLE MANAGEMENT

Written by Kai Donesa on . Posted in Resources.

You probably finished 2022 with a performance evaluation round with a five-point performance rating system. To evaluate yourself, your supervisor, and your colleagues, you were probably given a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the highest rating.

I’ve worked with several employers, including at large firms and a nonprofit organization, and I’ve noticed that they follow the same approach to evaluating staff performance. To assess yourself, your supervisor, and your colleagues, you’re given a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the highest rating.

Most organizations use the traditional five-point performance rating system. But a five-point system carries with it a range of people management issues. Instead of motivating staff, it does the complete opposite. And the root cause is that employees want to receive a perfect rating of 5 out of 5. Anything less than that, even a 4, would be undesirable and be seen as a failure.

I’ve experienced this dilemma firsthand. When my work performance was rated a 4, I was disappointed. I couldn’t help but compare myself to my coworkers, who received higher ratings closer to a perfect 5. Looking back, this traditional five-point system for measuring performance is far from helpful for several reasons.

In this article, we’ll explore why a five-point performance rating system may be detrimental not just to people managers and human resources but to the organization. We’ll also share what your human resources department can do to address this all-too-common mistake.

Does striving for excellence work?

To achieve success and become a market leader, organizations ‘aim high’ in setting employee expectations and performance standards. The strategy: celebrate the few exemplary and high-performing staff members who will inspire others to do the same. Additionally, employees are encouraged to do exceptionally well at their job every time.

The consequences of such an approach are potentially disastrous, however.

What are the drawbacks of aiming for a perfect rating?

Many organizations believe that setting ‘exceed’ or 5 out of 5 as the gold standard for performance is the best way to meet their goals. But this can lead to undesired behaviors, as seen in the situations below.

Divide and conquer. Setting extraordinarily high expectations can lead to false confidence and optimism. If staff work hard to exceed expectations, there is a greater chance of being adamantly focused on their own goals than collective goals. This can lead to division and conflict as staff members try to reach lofty individual goals.

Expectations versus reality. Setting ‘exceed’ as the performance standard can also create unrealistic expectations. When staff members believe they can achieve incredible things, they may be disappointed when reality doesn’t meet their expectations. As a result, they become too critical of their work, always striving to improve, even when the work is satisfactory. Employees may feel they can’t succeed, leading to demoralization and frustration and harming team morale and productivity.

Under pressure. Doing one’s job well can sometimes be challenging, but it is even more problematic when it involves working under conditions that aren’t conducive to success. When the pressure is high, it is easy for performance to suffer.

Compare and contrast. Instead of working on their tasks and achieving their goals, employees may be more likely to focus on how they compare to others. And when comparing their work with that of their colleagues, staff may feel they need to do more. This can lead to resentment and conflict, and it can also damage morale.

Alienation. When managers reward only high-performing staff members, they may inadvertently harm employee engagement. Managers who target star employees may risk alienating others who feel they cannot meet expectations. This hurts employee engagement and affects the organization’s culture and vibe.

At a certain point, striving to excel and exceed expectations may become frustrating or demotivating. To avoid setting up your organization for failure and to keep staff accountable, consider shifting to a performance standard that is more realistic and meaningful to them.

What does Birches Group recommend?

Remember that people want to feel valued and that everyone in the organization matters. Setting the attainable goal of achieving targets and improving one’s skills and performance are better ways to motivate people.

In contrast to the traditional five-point performance rating system I’ve seen in several organizations, Birches Group uses a simpler, less problematic four-point system. At Birches Group, performance is measured on a four-point system—Fail, Needs Improvement, Achieve, and Exceed—where Achieve is the gold standard and Exceed is the highest and reflects exceptional work. What I appreciate about this more straightforward approach is that there is less pressure, politics, and alienation. Everyday achievers are held in high esteem. Most staff are achievers who deliver what is expected of them in a performance year. Through the Birches Group four-point rating system, the organization can celebrate the many ‘good’ or the many achievers while allowing the exceptional few to be rewarded accordingly. The fact that there are different kinds of performers—the good, the great, and the exceptional—is acknowledged.

Bottom line

Recognize only a few exemplary employees, and you could set up your organization for failure. If you want staff to remain productive, engaged, and empowered, celebrate the many achievers across your organization and aim for progress. Doing so will also help your people stay focused, deliver results, and ultimately help them feel that they matter.

Contact us to learn more about Birches Group’s Community™ Performance and schedule your demo today.

Carla is a part-time copywriter in our marketing team in Manila. Before shifting to freelance writing in 2020, she worked as a marketing and communications specialist at the offices of EY and Grant Thornton. She has written about HR and career development for Kalibrr. 

Follow us on our LinkedIn for more content on pay management and HR solutions.

Iran’s Countrywide Protests and What They Mean for Employers

Written by Kai Donesa on . Posted in Uncategorized.

Birches Group monitors labor markets that are making headlines worldwide and wants to share news and updates on the conditions in these markets.

“Blood that is spilled unfairly will boil until the end of time,” goes an old Persian saying. For nine weeks, the streets of Iran have been shaken by protests calling for the overthrow of the religious theocracy that has ruled for over 40 years. Iran’s countrywide protests began on September 16, when 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died in police custody. Amini was detained in Tehran for allegedly not observing the country’s dress code for women and collapsed into a coma at a police station. A photo and video of Amini in the hospital were shared online and quickly went viral.

Iran has a long history of demonstrations and unrest. But the events since mid-September are different. They are led by women and young girls with no organizing force or leadership. They are spontaneous, persistent, widespread, and supported by people from different layers of society. Students and older Iranians, merchants and labor unions, and the middle and working classes have taken to university campuses and onto the streets of over 100 villages, towns, and cities across the country. Iranian expatriates have also rallied in support in Berlin, Washington DC, and Los Angeles.

And despite violent clashes with security forces, more than 14,000 arrests, and mobile and internet restrictions, dissent rages on with remarkable defiance.

The protests and the economy

The demonstrations across Iran now go far beyond Amini’s death and women’s rights. They have moved from demands for reform to demands for systemic changes, an expert told NBC News.

The protests have quickly swelled in response to the Islamic republic’s economic stagnation. The BBC says that, on average, Iranian families are “quite a lot poorer than they were 15 years ago.” Iran’s middle class has shrunk dramatically since 2018, with a third of its population falling into poverty. 23% of the youth population is unemployed, according to the Financial Times.

Additionally, Iran is facing a record inflation of 42.9%. Its currency, the Rial, has sunk to all-time lows. Since August, the Iran Rial has lost more than 20% of its value against the United States (US) dollar.

Businesses, shop owners, and bazaar traders in several cities closed their stores and went on strike, joining the protests in solidarity, Bloomberg and Iran Wire report. According to a primer from the United States Institute of Peace, factory workers in the energy and petrochemical industries also went on strike.

The Iran Chamber of Commerce warns that every hour of internet restrictions due to the protests costs US$1.5 million in damages to the Iranian economy. Research from the Tehran Computer Trade Union Organization states that 47% of internet businesses have lost more than 50% of their income. If the internet disruptions continue, 73% of businesses with less than 50 employees will lose over US$1,100 daily.

The government is considering a 20% pay raise for state workers. Still, the Rial’s sharp fall has eaten away at any benefit for workers, says London-based Iranian news website Iran International.

How we can help

Policies and procedures for keeping pay programs functioning in highly volatile markets such as Iran are critical. Organizations must develop a Special Measures Policy to determine the triggers and equivalent measures to support staff and ensure business continuity during political unrest. In addition, decide how your organization plans to implement the next steps for your staff. Employees need to know they can rely on their employer to help them during times of uncertainty.

We at Birches Group have extensive expertise in developing Special Measures Policies for organizations across different markets and sectors. Speak with our consultants today to find out how we can create one for you.

References:

4 BIGGEST PROBLEMS IN RECRUITMENT AND HOW TO FIX THEM

Written by Kai Donesa on . Posted in Resources.

One of the critical functions of HR that significantly impacts an organization is recruitment. Hiring talent is a multi-faceted process with many steps. In the blog, we discuss the 4 biggest problems in recruitment and how to fix them. These steps begin with having clear job descriptions, sourcing qualified candidates, conducting job interviews, and setting the starting salary of new hires. All these steps, coupled with the lack of standards and the personal biases of the hiring panel, could be a minefield of challenges and potential pitfalls.

Areas where organizations often make recruitment mistakes include vague job descriptions focused on tasks and not effectively screening applicants based on a solid and objective framework. Without the proper structure and processes, an organization’s recruitment efforts can quickly go sideways. Instead of hiring a perfectly qualified incumbent based on their skill level, managers and recruiters typically settle for the most charismatic person who happens to apply. But how can they determine if that candidate meets the role’s requirements?

Recruiting new employees can be daunting, so organizations must ensure corporate standards when assessing talent. What if an organization’s approach to recruitment can be fairer and more transparent—with purpose-driven job descriptions, structured job interviews focusing on the candidate’s experience, a solid skills-based framework for assessing candidates, and a transparent and objective approach to setting starting pay?

This blog post will present some of the most pressing recruitment challenges faced by managers and panel interviewers—and helpful ways organizations can solve them. A hint: it’s about revamping the process.

Vague job descriptions

Job descriptions describe the purpose, scope, and impact of a job. It should be clear, concise, and, most importantly, detailed enough to provide a clear picture of why the role matters. It must describe the role’s various functions, its placement within the larger unit or team, and how it contributes to the mission.

Unfortunately, due to the lack of guidance and proper tools, managers often try to write job descriptions by creating a mile-long list of tasks.

There are several problems when job descriptions focus on a list of tasks or inputs:

  • First, a list of day-to-day tasks doesn’t demonstrate why the role is crucial to the organization. How can candidates genuinely understand what they’re applying for if they only see a list of what they need to accomplish at the end of the day or week?
  • Second, when job descriptions use inputs, this does not give the incumbent room for flexibility or creativity with their approach to work. The concept of input stems from the old days of ‘clocking in and out’ from the office every day and ensuring your manager sees you at the office to give the impression that one is working hard. But does being in the office and clocking in truly mean that work is getting done?
  • Finally, a checklist of tasks often uses vague language, such as ‘assist’ or ‘prepare,’that fails to describe the impact of the role. The use of vague language affects how the job is evaluated at the proper level and, subsequently, affects compensation, learning & development objectives, performance measures, and career milestones.

So, how can this be avoided? By writing purpose-driven job descriptions that focus on the what and why rather than the how or where. An effective job description has a clear mission statement at its core. It should describe to the candidate why the role is crucial and what it is expected to deliver.

Additionally, a targeted skills profile must be incorporated into the job description to guide the recruitment process. By indicating the desired skill level required for the job (whether Basic, Proficient, or Skilled), managers or the hiring panel can better identify qualified candidates that meet the level of expertise required for the role.

Little to no structure to job interviews

It’s not unusual for job candidates to feel they are being grilled during an interview. The hiring panel asks questions that gauge the knowledge and experience of applicants. What do they know about the organization? What are their strengths? Where are they in their career?

The problem is when interviewers only ask candidates why they want the job. When going through the typical job interview process—where interviewers often think of questions on the fly—they fail to let the candidate demonstrate their experiences reflecting the required skill level for the job.

In many job interviews, questions are not given much thought. The concern is getting through the countless resumes and long line of applicants to finally fill the vacancy. But what ends up happening is that candidates are often asked questions that have little or nothing to do with the job, ultimately leading to a bad hire.

How can organizations get around this? Interviewers must be armed with questions integrated into the job’s skills profile and following the development approach, which indicates how a skill level may be mastered.

Birches Group’s Community™ Skills Recruitment tool provides interviewers with questions linked to the selected skills profile—from Basic to Proficient to Skilled—using a competency-based model. The questions encourage the candidate to relate a real-life experience or event that illustrates their capacity to respond to a given situation.

With standardized interview questions for every skill stage at each grade level, interviews finally become job-based, structured, and consistent.

Lack of corporate standards for assessing candidates

In assessing candidates, managers or the hiring panel have never been provided standards they could use to objectively base their assessments. Often, they tend to fall back on the usual years of experience, personal preferences, and even gut feeling. Not having clear criteria for assessing candidates and instead relying on personal judgment or salary history usually lead to hiring mistakes.

Following the structured interview questions provided by our Community™ Skills Recruitment tool, an assessment can be made by scoring the candidate’s responses to the appropriate skill level for each question. Depending on the level of knowledge and experience the candidate demonstrates, the interviewer can select from either the Basic or Proficient stage. But when a candidate’s responses appear to reflect a depth of knowledge or highly refined experience, this can warrant the interviewer to select the Skilled stage on their scorecard.

Once the job interview is complete, a scoresheet with the progressions of questions and skills ratings is presented, guiding subsequent discussions on the candidate’s assessment.

A consistent set of questions linking the skill level to the job grade ensures a neutral assessment of each candidate’s qualifications without examining their salary history.

Lack of a fair and equitable approach to setting starting pay

Many organizations do not have a clear approach to determining fair and appropriate starting salaries beyond their hiring rates when setting starting pay. When there is a desperate need to fill a vacancy, managers often end up negotiating starting salaries beyond what the organization is prepared to offer. When starting salaries are determined on a case-to-case basis, the organization is left with staff paid at different rates despite having the same work and skill level. This opens managers and HR to problems like mismatched expectations, which can cause employee resentment.

Organizations need to ensure that their hiring practices are fair and equitable. If candidates are assessed based on their skill level, the same approach can be applied when setting starting pay. The Community™ Skills Recruitment tool provides a framework for managers to easily determine starting salaries based on the candidate’s confirmed skill level.

Organizations can array the salary range for each grade level against our five Community™ Skills stages. When setting starting pay for a successful candidate, our Community™ Skills Recruitment tool automatically calculates the appropriate starting salary based on the candidate’s skills scorecard during their job interview.

When the skills profile is integrated into designing the job, structuring the interview questions, assessing candidates, and determining starting pay, organizations now have a consistent, fair, and equitable approach to the recruitment process. Biases, particularly age, gender, and race, no longer become a factor, while experience can be assessed more accurately.

A final note

Organizations face many issues when it comes to screening and hiring candidates. The most frustrating is not knowing what the applicants are truly capable of. To avoid the four problems earlier discussed, organizations must rework their approach to recruitment. They need to establish standards for assessing talent. Instead of looking at tenure, degree, or salary history, organizations must engage in skills-based recruitment that links back to the job level. By taking this approach, organizations can bring consistency, standards, and equity to one of the most unstructured but crucial HR functions.

Contact us to learn more about Birches Group’s Community™ Skills Recruitment tool and schedule your demo today.

Carla is a part-time copywriter in our marketing team in Manila. Before shifting to freelance writing in 2020, she worked as a marketing and communications specialist at the offices of EY and Grant Thornton. She has written about HR and career development for Kalibrr. 

Follow us on our LinkedIn for more content on pay management and HR solutions.

Turkiye's Hyperinflation

Turkey’s Hyperinflation and How Employers Are Weathering the Crisis

Written by Kai Donesa on . Posted in Uncategorized.

Birches Group monitors labor markets that are making headlines around the world and wants to share news and updates on the conditions in these markets.

Turkey, a Eurasian hub of 84 million people, is weathering an unprecedented economic and monetary crisis. Inflation is a major issue, with rising prices chipping away at purchasing power every week.

The Turkish Statistical Institute reported that Turkey’s annual inflation rate reached 83.45% in September, the highest in 24 years. Independent economists from ENAGrup believe the actual figure is 186.27%.

Inflation has been soaring in Turkey for 16 months, yet Bloomberg reports that price growth in the transcontinental country has been in the double digits since early 2017.

The country has suffered debt and currency calamities in the last few years, says The Wall Street Journal, but the current crisis is different. According to a report from Capital.com, aggressive interest rate cuts, high energy and commodity prices, heavy dependence on imports, and a depreciating Turkish Lira have contributed to surging inflation rates.

A paper from the Middle East Institute states that Turks have been driven to protect their savings by changing Lira deposits into gold and foreign currencies such as the Euro and United States (US) dollar. The tendency to keep savings under the pillow is also an ongoing trend.

What the government is doing

The Turkish government has taken several measures to protect households from high inflation. These mechanisms include:

  • Protecting Lira-denominated bank deposits
  • Raising the minimum wage by 50% in January and by 30% in July
  • Giving social transfers to poor households
  • Placing a 25% cap on rent increases
  • Reducing taxes on utility bills and introducing fuel and energy subsidies
  • Slashing value-added taxes on specific goods

But the measures have had little impact on the lives of Turks.

What the employers are doing

As their purchasing power shrinks and their job security erodes, many Turks are falling out of the middle class, says The Economist.

People are getting upset as they see their living standards falling. Businesses have been affected by the Lira’s fall in value, while people’s wages have been depleted because they can now buy less with their money. The price surge has upturned household and company budgets, and many are scrambling to cut costs. Over two-thirds of Turks are struggling to pay for food and cover their rent, according to a survey by the Yoneylem Social Research Center.

As a result, workers are negotiating higher salaries, and employers are taking proactive steps. Here are a few examples of what employers in Turkey are doing in response to mounting inflation:

  • Implementing across the board salary increases of between 15% to 30%
  • Improving allowances for items such as meals and transportation
  • added cash incentives or bonuses

Beginning summer last year, Mustafa Tonguc, the chief executive of DHL Express in Turkey, compiled a list of the cost of 50 essential products and compared them with their German equivalents to persuade bosses at headquarters to raise the wages of over 1,000 staff. According to the Financial Times (FT), Tonguc would raise wages three more times in the year ahead. “We as a business can’t fix the global economy, but we can take care as much as we can of our people,” Tonguc told FT. “In the last 12 months, many companies went bankrupt. We felt people should be assured of their job security,” he added.

How we can help

Policies and procedures for keeping pay programs functioning in highly volatile countries like Turkey are vital. A Special Measures Policy should be set up to determine the triggers and equivalent measures to support staff and ensure business continuity during volatile periods. In addition, organizations must decide how they plan to implement the next steps for their staff. Employees need to know that they can rely on their employer to help them during times of crisis.

We at Birches Group have extensive expertise in developing Special Measures Policies for organizations across different markets and sectors. Speak with our consultants today to find out how we can create one for you.

References:

Strategy in Sub-Saharan Africa

Vital Partners, Shared Priorities: The US Strategy Towards Sub-Saharan Africa

Written by Kai Donesa on . Posted in Uncategorized.

Birches Group monitors labor markets that are making headlines worldwide and wants to share news and updates on the current conditions in these markets.

The White House released in August 2022 the US strategy toward Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Its renewed policy supports four main objectives, including advancing pandemic recovery and economic opportunity.

A priority and opportunity

SSA is of growing importance on the world stage. Comprising 49 countries, the region is a geopolitical priority and an emerging economic opportunity. SSA countries hold roughly 25% of United Nations General Assembly seats. Moreover, the region is integrating into the world’s largest free trade area.

The US Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration describes SSA as presenting real opportunity, with indicators such as:

  • A combined market population of over 1.2 billion people (that is expected to double by 2050),
  • A gross domestic product of more than US$1.5 trillion, and
  • Home to some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.

The World Bank reports that economic activity in the area is set to expand by 3.6% in 2022, 3.9% in 2023, and 4.2% in 2024. Additionally, its young population makes SSA an attractive investment destination. Massive demographic shifts in this part of the world provide tremendous opportunities to create jobs, boost incomes, and reduce poverty, especially in a global environment of slowing growth.

China and its growing influence in the region

The world is well aware of Africa’s importance, encouraging countries to expand their political, economic, and security engagement with African states. In the past 20 years, new actors, such as China, have been shifting dynamics across SSA. And Chinese influence in the region is real and significant.

In 2001, China received less than 3% of the region’s exports, compared to nearly 19% for the US. In 2009, China overtook the US as SSA’s largest trading partner. Almost 20 years later, China has emerged as the region’s single greatest export partner, holding an 11% share of exports in 2019, while the US share dropped to 5%. China’s Belt and Road Initiative has invested in SSA through transportation, power, water supply, and other infrastructure projects. China has also provided loans, investments, and aid.

The US reframes its Sub-Saharan Africa partnership

The US is responding to growing foreign activity and influence in SSA and is engaging a region undergoing significant transformation. “It would be a strategic mistake for the US to abandon its engagement with SSA altogether—especially as US adversaries and competitors are relentlessly increasing their investment in the region…” said Daniel Runde, Director of the Project on Prosperity and Development, and Sundar Ramanujam, Research Associate of the Project on Prosperity and Development at the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS).

Biden’s policy differs from those of previous administrations because it focuses on overhauling its relationship with SSA from donor-recipient to genuine partnership. “Biden’s team extols Africa’s strengths and is proposing US-Africa partnerships on a range of issues,” said Mark Bellamy, Senior Advisor of the Africa Program at CSIS.

Further, Devex reports that the strategy has generally been well-received and is seen as sending a strong message about US engagement in the region. “It’s a strategy that reflects the region’s complexity—its diversity, its power, and its influence—and one that focuses on what we will do with African nations and peoples, not for African nations and peoples,” said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken as he announced the strategy.

It’s also an effort to make regional engagement authentic and not just a battleground to compete with China and Russia. “Too often, African nations have been treated as instruments of other nations’ progress rather than the authors of their own,” added Blinken in his announcement.

Why this matters to employers

With the intent of the US to reestablish ties and reinvest in SSA, employers with a presence in the region can anticipate a significant shift in the labor market in years to come. Monitoring the labor market as early as possible is critical for your organization to seize economic opportunities and remain competitive. Keeping an eye on market shifts enables your organization to plan and make informed decisions about hiring, pay management, employee benefits, and more.

How we can help

We at Birches Group survey leading employers in over 150 countries with a consistent methodology designed for dynamic, emerging markets across SSA. We survey labor markets of varying sizes, focusing on employers that set trends. Get updated and relevant data on every country in SSA. Speak with our consultants today to understand our data and how you can use it for your organization.

References:

Monitor The Labor Market

5 REASONS WHY ORGANIZATIONS SHOULD MONITOR THE LABOR MARKET

Written by Kai Donesa on . Posted in Resources.

The labor market is constantly changing and evolving. It changes to reflect demands and pressures from different sectors, industries, and locations. New jobs emerge, old ones disappear, and wages fluctuate—sometimes due to external forces and local or regional economic factors. Organizations must stay on top of trends and monitor the labor market to remain competitive. Those that don’t keep up risk being left behind and failing to meet the needs of their people.  

One way for organizations to stay ahead is to monitor the labor market. Doing so helps human resources (HR) teams understand how their organization is affected by market movement. Reviewing and interpreting labor market data allows HR teams to address critical questions such as: 

  • How can we determine how much the market pays for similar roles? 
  • How can we competitively position ourselves against our target peers? 
  • How can we become an employer of choice in the local labor market? 

Keeping an eye on the labor market enables organizations to make informed decisions about hiring, pay management, employee benefits, retention strategies, and more.  

This blog post will explore why organizations should track the labor market and how to do so effectively. When the organization knows what is coming, it can plan and ensure it is well-positioned when the opportunity to grow strikes. 

Establishing market composition and position 

Using labor market data can help organizations clearly and consistently establish their competitive strategy, notably their: 

  • Target composition, or which group of employers are similar and more relevant to the organization. Consider organizations from the same sector, employers you lose your staff to, and organizations you often hire staff from.  
  • Target position, or how competitive an organization wants to be. Identify the ideal percentile (e.g., 50th, 75th) of the labor market the organization wishes to attract.  

Determining its target composition and position enables an organization to understand where it stands against key employers in the market. It also guides the organization on what it needs to do to lag, match, or stay ahead of relevant comparators. Organizations must consider their compensation policies and budget to establish their target composition and position. 

Setting benefits 

Labor market data also gives up-to-date insights into benefits widely provided in each country. In addition to salaries, benefits come in the form of cash (allowances and bonuses), in-kind benefits (company bus, gift baskets, company products, etc.), and non-salary benefits (retirement plans, healthcare coverage, family benefits, and leave provisions). 

As the organization reviews compensation and benefits surveys, it can easily identify mandatory, cultural, and market practice benefits, as well as benefits that address local hardships. And while salaries often attract key talent to an organization, benefits make up a significant part of the compensation package in developing markets. By providing the proper compensation and benefits, the organization can remain competitive and retain talent.  

Identifying HR gaps and making the necessary adjustments 

Identifying the gaps in HR practices is another way organizations can benefit from monitoring labor market information. Some of the few questions that organizations will want to address are: 

  • Do our hiring rates remain competitive? 
  • Are we able to retain the talent we need? 
  • Are our employee benefits competitive in the market? 

When the organization encounters talent management issues—such as challenges in attracting the right talent or holding on to staff—it may be time to make adjustments to the compensation package. 

If the organization is looking for data scientists—but hasn’t found suitable candidates—it may be time to rethink the starting salaries to ensure they are comparable to other organizations hiring for a similar job. Or perhaps the organization starts to lose staff after some time. It may need to reassess policies on pay movement, benefits packages, or career advancement to entice staff to stay longer.  

Understanding the impact of the data

Organizations need to go beyond the labor market data. They must understand how changing HR policies and practices in reaction to emerging trends, shifts, and volatility affects staff. So, the question that needs to be addressed is: Do the organization’s policies and initiatives reflect labor market changes and demands? 

A recent example would be the shift from working at a traditional office to working remotely or in a hybrid format. After years of being accustomed to working from home (in response to the COVID-19 pandemic), employees now expect flexible work arrangements—so much that they are willing to leave the organization if it does not offer the option. 

Another example is managing dispersed teams. With many employees now preferring to relocate to places that are sometimes far from the office, how will adjustments to compensation and benefits affect staff based in different areas? Should organizations still base salaries on city rates or adjust them based on where the staff chooses to relocate?

Thus, organizations need to use labor market data and its implications to help inform their policies. Other key questions that organizations need to answer when looking at labor market data include: 

  • Is our compensation program reaching the talent we need? 
  • How can we maintain our relevance in the labor market? 
  • Are there opportunities for improvement? 
  • Will changing our policies and practices help or hurt us? 
  • What are the implications of these changes on staff? 

Managing compensation even through uncertainty 

Now more than ever, organizations need to closely monitor the market. With inflation rising in countries across the globe, employees need to know that their employer has a plan to help them get through turbulent times.  

Organizations can best manage economic turmoil by monitoring the labor market coupled with a special measures policy. When volatility happens, chances are employees are going to ask HR how the organization will help their families manage their day-to-day expenses. When market conditions warrant adjustments to compensation, this is easily defensible when you have the market data to support it.   

When unpredictable events such as economic volatility, natural calamities, armed conflict, and periods of unrest affect the regular dynamics of the labor market, organizations must keep participating and monitoring labor market movement. By doing so, the organization can determine proper triggers, based on data, that would justify changes to compensation and benefits, as well as the frequency to which adjustments are made.  

Bottom line: Know where you stand 

The labor market continues to shift. It may be difficult for organizations to keep up as the market relies on changes from other sectors of the economy and events from around the world. As such, it is critical to keep track of the ever-changing landscape. This ensures that organizations adapt and adjust policies and measures to meet new demands, positioning themselves for success.  

To do this, organizations need up-to-date data about the labor market to know what conditions are like in their area. Tracking the labor market through salary surveys can offer helpful insight into emerging trends that could impact the organization. Monitoring will help employers understand current conditions to make informed decisions about jobs, the market, and skills and performance. In the end, keeping one’s eyes on the labor market helps organizations stay competitive.  

Does your organization need labor market data, especially on developing markets? We at Birches Group offer the most comprehensive salary survey coverage, with data on over 150 countries. We survey markets of varying sizes and focus on leading employers that set trends. Get in touch with our consultants to get started. 

Carla is a part-time copywriter in our marketing team in Manila. Before shifting to freelance writing in 2020, she worked as a marketing and communications specialist at the offices of EY and Grant Thornton. She has written about HR and career development for Kalibrr. 

Follow us on our LinkedIn for more content on pay management and HR solutions.

Zambia’s Debt Crisis: What You Should Know

Written by Kai Donesa on . Posted in Uncategorized.

Birches Group monitors labor markets that are making headlines worldwide, and wants to share news and updates on the current conditions in these markets. 

Defaulting on debt

In November 2020, Zambia became the first African nation to default on its Eurobonds during the COVID-19 pandemic, bringing the country’s debt distress into headlines around the world. The debt crisis resulted from “years of economic mismanagement,” the International Monetary Fund said. Drought in 2019 and COVID-19 in 2020 worsened Zambia’s economic challenges.  

A precarious macroeconomic situation 

But the Zambian economy was witnessing “a weak macroeconomic condition” even before the COVID-19 outbreak, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development said. Growth was sharply declining. Zambia was facing severe challenges such as high inflation, unsustainable debt levels, low international reserves, and tight liquidity conditions, according to the economic outlook of the African Development Bank (AfDB). 

Over the past five years, Zambia’s economic growth slightly accelerated in 2017 and 2018, slowed in 2019, declined to a negative in 2020, and resumed in 2021, as reported by the 2022 Index of Economic Freedom. In 2018, Zambia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was estimated at US$ 26.31 billion, with an annual growth rate of 4 percent. But an “expansionary fiscal policy mainly financed by external and local borrowing” caused Zambia’s debt to hit 91.6% of its GDP in 2019 and 104% in 2020.  

Inflation nearly doubled, and the Zambian kwacha quickly depreciated by 64%. When COVID-19 hit Zambia being in this situation, the country’s precarious macroeconomic position took a turn for the worse. The Zambian economy fell into a deep recession, the AfDB said. More inflation, currency depreciation, and a significant debt burden forced Zambia to default on its debt obligation and seek more relief from lenders. 

A new dawn for Zambia 

In August 2021, Zambia’s trajectory significantly shifted with the election of a new government led by longtime opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema. As Zambia’s seventh president, Hichilema inherited a nation with unsustainable debt larger than previously known and had to deal with the impact of its debt default.  

According to Deloitte, debt restructuring, talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and a more stable exchange rate, among other measures, would be “fundamental to Zambia achieving macroeconomic stability.” Hichilema outlined an ambitious agenda to address structural weaknesses through macroeconomic reforms guided by an IMF program. 

Engaging the IMF 

“Zambia is in debt distress and needs a deep and comprehensive debt treatment to place public debt on a sustainable path,” the IMF said. The government began to actively seek a comprehensive debt restructuring. Specifically, it initiated a creditor engagement strategy to secure immediate debt service relief and better terms, the AfDB said. 

On December 6, 2021, the government of Zambia announced it had reached a staff-level agreement on a US$1.4-billion extended credit facility with the IMF from 2022 to 2025. On September 6, 2022, the IMF’s Executive Board approved a 38-month credit facility amounting to US$1.3 billion to “restore economic stability and foster higher, more resilient, and more inclusive growth.” 

These recent events marked a significant milestone and set the path for negotiations with Zambia’s lenders to restructure the country’s external debt.  

Focusing on economic recovery 

The country’s economic outlook has markedly improved, given renewed optimism and increased investor confidence post-elections. Additionally, the newly elected government has made several important policy announcements, including an enhanced focus on rebuilding the economy and creating an enabling business environment to foster growth. 

Zambia’s growth in the coming years is to be likely driven by “a clear path to debt sustainability, leveraging the country’s mining potential, increased private sector participation, focus on job creation, and good governance,” said Deloitte & Touche (Zambia) Managing Partner Humphrey Mulenga in Doing Business in Zambia. Economic activity will gradually pick up, with the World Bank estimating growth at an average of 3.8% from 2022 to 2025. While the market sentiment has markedly improved, the Zambian economy remains fragile, the IMF said in a September 2022 report. 

How we can help 

We at Birches Group survey leaders in over 150 countries with a consistent methodology designed for dynamic, emerging markets such as Zambia. We survey labor markets of varying sizes, focusing on employers that set market trends. Our survey data empowers organizations to monitor and benchmark positions in local markets and create salary structures tailored to each country’s requirements while conforming to global standards. 

Speak with our consultants today to access up-to-date labor market data and understand how to use it for your organization. 

References:

ESTABLISHING CLARITY, FAIRNESS, AND EQUITY IN PAY

Written by Kai Donesa on . Posted in Resources.

Establishing fairness in pay involves careful and thoughtful decision-making that is not as straightforward as simply assigning the same salary to all employees in the same position. Staff development is never uniform. Employees develop at different paces, with some gaining skills and experience around specific areas of the job faster than others. To ensure fairness and equity through pay, employers need to carefully assess the unique skills and knowledge of each employee, while providing clarity in approach.

Clarity in Pay Through Transparency

Historically, disclosing one’s salary has always been considered private and taboo. Salaries have always been an emotional and sensitive subject, as it is typically associated with one’s value to the company.  According to this LinkedIn article, one of the reasons for keeping wages and salary ranges private is that companies want to keep the status quo. They are afraid to upset employees which can inevitably happen when pay gaps in the organization are exposed. But the reality is that every organization will have pay gaps, and a major step in eliminating those gaps is through transparency.

In recent years, both lawmakers and leading companies have been addressing gender and race-related pay gaps through laws and compensation policies. In 2006, Denmark introduced legislation that required companies to disclose wage statistics between men and women with the same job if the company has more than 10 men and women working in the same position. In this study done by Professor Morten Bennedsen from the Economic Institute at the University of Copenhagen and INSEAD Business School in France, the law appears to have decreased the pay gap between men and women by 13%. In Canada, public sector employers are required to disclose salaries and benefits of employees that are paid $100,000 or more in a year which led to a 30% drop in the gender pay gap according to a study by the National Bureau of Economic Research .

In Birches Group, we too, believe and practice transparency in pay which is demonstrated through a couple of ways. First, the company’s salary scale is published to all staff. All employees are allowed to see the salary ranges not only for their grade level, but also others. Simply making our salary scale public allows everyone in the organization to see predictable movement within each grade level, the difference between one grade level to the next, and possible career progression for each role.

Second, our compensation policies on setting pay, variable pay movement, and milestones to determine promotion readiness are made clear as part of the company’s onboarding process and refresher trainings are regularly provided to all staff. When organizations make it clear how employees are paid and how they can chart their careers, staff feel more empowered to take equal ownership of the level and pace of their development, positively contributing to employee retention, while holding the organization accountable to provide clarity to their employees on how they are assessed and recognized.

Fairness and Equity in Pay by Measuring Staff’s Skills & Knowledge

Managing pay increases has always been a complicated process. People want to be paid according on their level of experience, but traditional approaches have never allowed managers to clearly measure experience apart from time (through time-based “steps” in the salary scale) or performance (through merit pay).

Using time-based steps or increments was never effective in recognizing one’s experience. As long as an employee completes another year with their employer, they get one or two steps in their pay regardless of whether they do their job or not. Merit pay, on the other hand, allows for variable pay movement based on the employee’s performance ratings from the preceding year. While this approach was designed to award pay increases to employees with good outputs and results, using performance ratings is not reliable because it doesn’t guarantee the same results the following year. When performance is used to drive pay increases, the organization is essentially rewarding an employee’s one-time achievement with a salary increase forever.

To truly establish equity in the workplace, we at Birches Group, believe pay movement should be based on the level of skills and knowledge the employee brings to the company. Over time, as an employee acquires and demonstrates new levels of skills and knowledge, their capacity to perform their job becomes better, making it a more effective and objective way to drive pay increases.

A big challenge to employers has always been how to measure one’s experience – “How do I know, what you know?” Birches Group has come up with a framework and an assessment tool that can explicitly measure your employees’ skills and knowledge. Using our Community™ Jobs approach as the underlying foundation, Community™ Skills consists of a progression of five skills stages across six indicators which is used to measure the continuous growth of an employee within their job.

Through Community™ Skills, pay management policies can be developed and aligned to use skills and knowledge growth to drive variable pay movement. Community™ Skills can also be used to demonstrate equity and fairness through deliberate developmental assignments for staff, as well as providing an objective criterion for succession planning and promotion decisions.

Pay equity and transparency in the workplace doesn’t happen overnight. Companies must take active steps to ensure clarity around pay management policies, as well as standards on how employees are assessed and developed. Birches Group has extensive experience developing compensation policies for organizations across different sectors and markets. Our Community™ Skills tool can help organizations assess the capacities in their workforce, facilitate pay movement, as well as guide learning and development assignments. Contact us to learn how we can improve your talent management programs today.

Kai works in our Marketing Team in Manila. She creates online content around Community™ concepts and assists in developing promotional campaigns answering why Community™ should be each organization’s preferred solution, focusing on its simplicity and integrated approach. She has had years of experience in social media content creation handling different brands over the years.

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